In heads up poker games the rank (or strength) of starting hands change when compared to a 6 or 10 table game. This is due to the decreased likelihood that you are facing an opponent with a hand which dominates yours (is a 70% or more favorite against you). This article looks at how to calculate your odds pre-flop in heads-up poker and gives a list of the common pre-flop odds which every player should know.
You will improve it on the turn: 9.2=18% and real poker odds are around 19%; You have a straight draw on the flop with 8 outs. You will improve it on the turn: 8.2=16% and real poker odds are around 17%; You have two over cards on the turn with 6 outs. You will improve it on the turn: 6.2=12% and real poker odds are around 13%. You will improve it on the turn: 9.2=18% and real poker odds are around 19%; You have a straight draw on the flop with 8 outs. You will improve it on the turn: 8.2=16% and real poker odds are around 17%; You have two over cards on the turn with 6 outs. You will improve it on the turn: 6.2=12% and real poker odds are around 13%. Professional poker players compare the pot odds to the hand odds before calling bets on the turn and river. When pot odds exceed hand odds, a solid betting situation exists. After the flop, there is $50 in the pot. The first player raises $10.
On the flop, it's 9.4 (+4) = roughly 40% of hitting. Meanwhile, on the turn (so the odds of hitting on the river) is 9.2 (=2) = roughly 20% of hitting. With pot odds, think of the number of cards again. 52 in the deck, two in your hand and three on the board (flop). That means 47 unseen cards (including your opponents' hole cards). The poker odds are in your favor. Now if your opponent bet $100 that would be a much dicier proposition. Suddenly you are risking $100 to win $200 and the odds are 200-100, or simplified, 2-1. Since you’re only 6-1 to make your hand you should probably fold.
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There are a total of 1326 starting hands in Texas Holdem poker, this is calculated by taking 1 of the original 52 card deck and then one of the remaining 51 cards:
(1/52)*(1/51) = 1326 combinations.
Poker Odds Before The Flop Dance
If we leave aside the different combinations of suits then these can be reduced to 169 distinct starting hands. 13 of these are pairs, 78 are suited unpaired cards and the remaining 78 are unsuited unpaired cards.
The cards that you are dealt affect the probability of your opponent having the same holding. For example if you are dealt an Ace before the flop there are only 3 remaining aces in the deck – the chances of an opponent holding an ace has been reduced by 25%.
The table below shows the odds of being dealt specific strength holdings before the flop.
A-A (220/1 or 0.45%)
A-K (81.9/1 or 1.1%)
A-A, K-K, Q-Q or 10-10 (54.3/1 or 1.8%)
Any Pocket Pair (16:1 or 6.25%)
Any 2 Cards Jack or Higher (10.1/1 or 9.05%)
The relative strength of pre-flop hands in heads-up poker can be calculated by assuming that your opponent has a random holding. That is to say that the chances your hand will win a showdown if all the chips went in to the middle immediately can be ranked in terms of your holding compared to the whole range of your opponent’s possible cards.
Poker Odds Before The Flop End
The table below gives the pre-flop odds of selected head-up poker hands
A-A, wins 84.93% of the time.
K-K, wins 82.12% of the time
Q-Q, wins 79.63% of the time.
J-J, wins, 77.15% of the time
A-K (suited), wins 64.47% of the time
K-Q (not suited), wins 60.43% of the time.
J-10 (suited) wins 56.15% of the time
K-4 (not suited) wins 50.23% of the time
Hands below K-4 off suit are not favorite before the flop…
the very worst hand 2-3 (not suited) wins only 29.24% of the time.
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Once the flop has been dealt in Texas Hold'em, you'll be able to count your outs and know how likely it is your hand will improve. That will tell you whether you should stay in the hand or fold.
You can figure out your outs and odds for any hand, but here is a quick and dirty list of the most common scenarios:
Texas Hold'em Cheat SheetOdds Based on Outs after the Flop
If after the flop, you have:
Two outs: Your odds are 11 to 1 (about 8.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you have a pair and you are hoping your pair becomes a three-of-a-kind (a set).
Four outs: Your odds are 5 to 1 (about 16.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you are trying to hit an inside straight draw (there are 4 cards of one number that will complete the straight) or you have two pairs and you hope to make a full house (there are three cards remaining of one number and two of the other).
Eight outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 31 percent)
A common scenario would be that you have an open-ended straight draw. There are four remaining cards of two different numbers that will complete your straight, on the high end and on the low end.
Nine outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 35 percent)
This is the common scenario when you have a flush draw. Any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush.
Fifteen outs: Your odds are 1 to 1 (about 54 percent)
A scenario for this is having a straight and flush draw, where either any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush, while there are four cards remaining of each of two numbers that would complete a straight. However, you don't count the same cards twice as outs, so those of suit you hope to get don't count again.
The Rule of Four and Two
These odds only apply to counting both the turn and the river, so they assume you will stay in the hand until the showdown. Your odds are only about half as good for a single card draw, such taking the hit on the turn or taking the hit on the river. A common way of looking at the difference in the odds when you will be seeing two cards compared with one is called the Rule of 4 and 2.
After the flop, count your outs and multiply them by four to get your percentage odds. This doesn't give you an exact number, but it is quickly in the ballpark. With 15 outs, 4 x 15 = 55 percent you'll complete that straight or flush with the next two draws.
Poker Odds Before The Flop Show
However, when you are calculating the odds that a single draw will improve your hand, you multiply the outs by two rather than 4. With 15 outs, 2 x 15 = 30 percent chance.